Initial Unemployment Claims Data Keeps Flashing Green, but...


If it is Thursday, it is Initial Unemployment Claims day. For the week ending Oct 29th the number of our fellow Americans who lost their job and filed a claim for Initial Unemployment Insurance was 256,000.

This represents another good week of claims data and keeps us pegged at lows last seen in the 1970’s. Though, as usual over the past six years, the data represents a dichotomy in the labor market; job growth simply isn’t consistent with this low level of claims data. Just yesterday, Wed Nov 2nd, the October ADP Employment Change data disappointed again coming in below expectations at a paltry 147,000 new jobs in October. Tomorrow, the Non-farm payrolls data will likely also disappoint by way of the total number of jobs created, or in the quality and nature of the jobs created.

This takes us back to policy and importance of the actions of those we send to DC. Until we remove the structural barriers put in place by Congress and the White House, this dichotomy will persist. Still, all the while the Federal Reserve keeps pushing on a string to try and stimulate aggregate demand to ensure full employment.

They say we are there, yet interest rates remain at .25%; another dichotomy.

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