Steady as she goes for initial claims; how many of our fellow Americans lost there job and filed for unemployment insurance. For the week ending August 5th 244,000 Americans filed for unemployment insurance about as expected. It is a another in a long string of good claims data not matched since the 1970's.
The 4-week moving average remains steady at 241K and affirms again American businesses are running lean and mean. The long running dichotomy remains however; where is the job growth to match the claims data?
There isn't much room to the downside for claims, the U.S. labor market is always churning even in the best of times. For more than a year claims have shown a flashing green light on growth without much confirmation form Non-farm payrolls, retail sales, or GDP. Claims should remain low and steady through Q1 2018, though could easily be disrupted by Geo-political issues related to North Korea, Russia, Syria, or by domestic political issues related to the Trump presidency and frozen Congress.
I'm busy working on my blog posts. Watch this space!